Importance of Per Capita Energy Increases
Today’s six billion plus people live with the sad legacy of the twentieth century’s fossil fuel combustion. It is a legacy of air pollution causing lung damage and water pollution in the form of acid rain also destroying fish in streams, wildlife on plains and in forests, and a wide range of plant life. Billions of tons of carbon dioxide annually are added to the atmosphere and absorbed by the world’s oceans. This injection of greenhouse gases will alter the ecosystem in ways which will further destroy species and degrade human health.
All of this has been done in the name of mobility and personal convenience as presented by the elite of twentieth century multinational corporations, whose self-interest was profit, not a sustained quality of life.
 | In the 'Back to the Future' movie series, a Delorean was refitted with plutonium as the power source. Is science fiction a precursor to real science? Can radioactive substances or recycled waste products provide a future energy source for humanity's personal mobility needs? |
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But not all is doom and gloom, especially if we embrace the coming energy transition from non-renewable and dangerous resources to renewable and safe resources. Scientific innovations are leading to reliable technologies delivering energy products in the form of solar cells, wind turbines, and hydrogen fuel cells. They convert abundant renewable energy into electricity for use in fixed structures like homes and businesses and hydrogen for deployment to preserve humanity’s mobility in automobiles, ships, and aircraft.
Why is the search for an alternative to carbon-based fossil fuels so important?
Quite simply because the demand for electricity in the twentieth century increased by more than two orders of magnitude. As Vaclav Smil, University of Manitoba expert on energy and the environment writes, "Historical evidence shows us unequivocally that...advances in energy efficiency have not led to any declines of aggregate energy consumption." Furthermore, the demand for personal mobility in the form of the automobile skyrocketed. Consequently, power sources such as wood, coal, oil, and gas continue to be depleted at such rates that they cannot be replaced for thousands of years. As users of technology driven by electricity, sources of power generated by fossil fuels or by these fuels directly need to be significantly reduced. The timing is apropos as ecologically-demanding consumers are demanding such a shift in energy sources and they believe this transformation of energy source types can be achieved rapidly.
Three alternative energy sources finding acceptance in the twenty-first century are wind, solar, and hydrogen. Wind and solar power sources augment coal and replace nuclear power generation. Centralized wind farms can be built to generate equivalent power as coal-fired plants. Distributed solar panels can be integrated into new building and parking lot construction to generate electric power to minimize peak loads during high demand and deliver excess power to the power grid during periods of low demand. Already, many solar upgrade kits are being installed to achieve this effect in existing structures. Hydrogen fuel cells are optimal for mobility and portable power needs. The chemical reaction of removing hydrogen by decomposing water (or even extracting hydrogen from gasoline temporarily) provides clean energy. This hydrogen can be used in a range of applications from powering automobiles to laptop computers.
Encourage your company to add renewable energy self-generation, as a priority, for their physical structures' maintenance and look into such a scheme for your own living space. Ask your politicians to create incentives for business and residences to integrate both self-sufficient energy generation and support bills to make it easier for interconnect to the Utility power grid.
Below are those leading utility operators in the sales of green power. If you are served by one of these top 10 U.S. energy companies, please call them up and thank them.
| Company | Renewable Resources Used | Annual Sales* |
|---|---|---|
| wind, landfill gas | 581 | |
| wind, existing geothermal and hydro | 433 | |
| wind, landfill gas, biomass, solar | 303 | |
| wind, biomass, solar | 300 | |
| wind | 237 | |
| wind | 217 | |
| wind, landfill gas, small hydro | 217 |
*annual sales in millions of kilowatt-hours
Below is a ranking of the service provided by American utility operators as compiled by the University of Michigan:
| Company | Customer Satisfaction Score | Percent Change* |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 | ||
| 0 | ||
| +6.7 | ||
| -1.3 | ||
| -1.3 | ||
| 0 | ||
| +1.3 |
*percent change from last year
Wind power and solar energy can be deployed for centralized electrical distribution and distributed electrical generation, respectively.
| Use of a centralized solar power generation scheme requires acres and acres of land to produce electricity equivalent to that produced by coal. Consequently, solar power for local generation to enable personal energy independence and feeding any excess generation into the existing power grid is the way to go. |  |
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Hydrogen fuel cells are a third renewable energy source just coming into their own as the final major technological and production hurdles are cleared for its widespread use. And the connection of millions of distributed solar panels, wind turbines, and hydrogen fuel cells to the traditional utility power grid will transform it to a national power resource. Just like the automatic routing of information during connection to the Internet, electrical power will be automatically dispatched where it is most needed during peak periods. Computer technology will democratize the energy network just as it did the communications network.
In this new century the fossil fuel era and the nuclear energy experiment comes to an end and the renewable energy era begins. How we handle the transition to this new power source determines to what degree the industrialized world can maintain a balanced society.
{Excerpts here are extracted from the author's Chapter 38 of "A World Perspective through 21st Century Eyes," c 2004}
Why is the Energy Crisis Ever Present?
The short answer, to the subject question, is that humanity currently relies on a non-renewable source of energy to fuel civilization – crude oil. This and other fossil fuels (natural gas, coal, tar sands, and more) were deposited earlier in earth’s history from captured solar energy. As they are consumed, each successive unit of consumption is harder to produce. Fossil fuels will run out. That is a certainty. During the oil crisis of the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter declared it. Today, almost everybody believes it. In fact, President Abraham Lincoln could have said it too, in 1859, when the first barrel of oil was extracted. The important point is that oil is running out. Furthermore, the economic reality dictates that when supply dwindles and demand soars, prices skyrocket. This is already occurring with oil passing the eighty-dollar per barrel mark for the first time in September 2007.Consider the 35-year old, 1972 National Petroleum Council (NPC) study, which predicted rapid price increases for oil in the twenty-first century. What I find amazing is the relatively conservative estimates used back then. Seventy dollar per barrel oil was projected for 2020. This level was actually hit in 2005, fifteen years before the projection – a projection that industry pundits and politicians scoffed at in 1972.
And now that we’ve crossed the $80 per barrel threshold, we’re well on our way to the year 2045 estimate, one that we will likely surpass much sooner. Consider the table below that shows two views of the price of a barrel of oil in U.S. dollars:
| Year | 1972 View | 2005 View |
|---|---|---|
| 3.18 | ||
| 3.70 | ||
| 5.16 | ||
| 7.21 | ||
| 14 | ||
| 70 | ||
| 380 | ||
| 2,000 | ||
| 20,000 |
Following this line of reasoning, a $380/barrel price of oil will be reached before the end of the decade and 4-digit price levels shortly thereafter – only the elite will be able to afford mobility. Ouch. What can be done?
The short answer is to stop using non-renewable sources of energy. Some suggestions that can be immediately implemented to reduce the consumption of oil-based products, without going cold turkey, include:
| Item | Short Term | Long Term |
|---|---|---|
| Push Congressional Representatives for higher mileage standards (at least 35 – 40 mpg), incentives for introducing PHEVs, and accelerated fuel cell investment | ||
| Push the State and Federal Government for greater National Electrical Grid investment while mandating a higher percentage of green energy production in every utility’s output mix. | ||
| Consume more locally grown organic fruits and vegetables. Lots of fossil fuels are required to both produce animals for human consumption and the transportation of those products to your supermarket. | ||
| Arrange with your employer a work at home schedule or set-up car pools. | ||
| Using Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) cuts the amount of electricity used by a factor of 5. | ||
| An easy one is irrigate your lawn every second day rather than every day. Water requires energy to pump it to you. Homeowners over water their yards from between 30 to 300 percent too. Cutting back on irrigation and water use saves energy. | ||
This list, like many others, may appear daunting, but pick one item to start with. If you are doing most of these, great! Add to the list to bring it up to ten items long. Once you get going there will be no stopping you. After you are happy with your list, pass it on to family and friends to give it a go.
In the Koslowsky household, we started with the first item, simply because two more of our daughters required independent mobility for their school and work activities. We traded in the Pontiac Bonneville for a used Toyota Prius in April 2005 and the Chevrolet Astro Van for another used Toyota Prius in August 2005. The cost savings at the pump have been immediate with significant reduction in fuel consumption and tailpipe pollutants. During the past twelve months, with a $3.00 per gallon average price, about $2,110 less was spent on gasoline for each car, based on a modest 10,000 travel miles. This translates into a 2007 gas savings of $4,220 for the Koslowsky household, money that was spent on education and other things, rather than sending it overseas to the Middle East for more oil products. Our eldest daughter, who works full time, just traded in her GM Sunfire for a 2008 Toyota Prius and she expects even greater savings as the price of gas continues to increase and she travels beyond our local area. Her gas savings in 2008 are expected to be on the order of $2,591, enough to pay for at least three months of rent.
The key to improved gas mileage with the Toyota Prius is its use of the gas-electric hybrid technology, something GM plans to have on its passenger cars by 2009, 12 years after Toyota. This is an image of the electric motor portion of Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive.
As a family, we’ve also cut back on most meats and all but eliminated beef from our diets. The many e.coli scares originating from polluting factory farms also had something to do with it. Buying more fruits and vegetables, many organically and locally grown, has also been a good experience. In the house, we consciously turn off lights and appliances as we leave a room and we changed out about 80 percent of our light bulbs from the hot incandescent bulbs to cooler and brighter CFLs. Outside, we water ever second day and have seen our water bill drop. Of course, recent rate hikes by the City of Santa Rosa, have off set some of these savings. Interestingly enough, increasing energy costs have caused, in part, these rate hikes, in spite of the City installing solar panels to provide the energy to run some of the pumping stations.
So, before the price of oil reaches $100 per barrel, consider implementing some of these things to soften the economic blow to you and your family. Doom is not what we want to hear, but the reality that President Jimmy Carter envisaged in the spring of 1977, can be kept at arm’s length if we all give our own list of 10 a try: “…We will feel mounting pressure to plunder the environment. We will have a crash program to build more nuclear plants, strip-mine and burn more coal and drill more offshore wells…Inflation will soar, production will go down, people will lose their jobs…If we fail to act soon, we will face an economic, social and political crisis that will threaten our free institutions.” It can be argued that we have begun the “crash program” phase of Carter’s fears, driven by federal officials intent on building nuclear bombs, I mean, plants for power of the radioactive kind and raping the earth of its coal for power of the dirty kind. Instead of facing the next steps of a spiraling crisis, investment in renewable energy sources at both the state and federal level must be done. It requires work. It requires voters insisting their politicians take a stand for national security through energy independence.
And in the meantime, it requires us all to do our part, one item at a time from our own list of 10.
Government Policy and Energy
Bush on Energy and the Economy – An April 2008 Press ConferenceBush Statements:
I took the opportunity to listen to George W. Bush talk about the U.S. economy on April 29th, 2008. What follows are some of his opening statements:
“The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) ability to drill for oil is blocked. We can drill in the Arctic in a safe way. Why can’t we use abandoned military bases for new oil refineries?”
“New Clean Coal plants are blocked and pollution control regulation is holding back more plants needed to produce electricity.”
“New and clean nuclear plants are blocked by Congress. I’m a big believe in Nuclear Power.”
“Reliance on expensive natural gas is raising energy costs.” (Note: this source of energy was once trumpeted as a lower cost way to heat homes and cook food)
“Greater regulation is bad for the economy.”
Bush talked about increasing costs and regulation. He said we need to clear obstacles to generate more reliable energy here at home, “These are tough times.”
“Remove farm subsidies,” he said.
Wow, a Republican White House is now after the wealthy farmers…Really? A Republican targeting people making money. This was a surprise to me.
Bush also reiterated that he did not want new burdens added to taxpayers.
Reporter Questions-Bush Answers:
1. What about a summer moratorium on the gas tax to help consumers?
“Wait for the first stimulus to take effect. Hey, the money is beginning to arrive. We’ll see what the effects are….” “Hey, we can find oil here at home?” “It’s a new era. We can drive electric vehicles at 40 mpg. We can pursue ethanol. We can look at alternative fuels.” “We need to find supply here at home.”
2. 85 percent of corn costs is due to the rising use of biofuels. How can we make food more affordable?
“My take is different. Weather, increased demand, and rising fuel costs contribute to the 85 percent and only 15 percent is due to ethanol. Scarcity is of concern to us. If we would buy food from local farmers as a way to help deal with scarcity and as a way to put in place an infrastructure so nations can be self-sustaining.”
3. What about the gas tax moratorium?
“You’re trying to drag me into the 08 race. We’re concerned about high gasoline prices…Congress can be helpful by dealing with these issues.”
4. We may have already passed the maximum oil pumping level? Why haven’t you put more emphasis into alternative fuels.
“We put a lot in there. The solution to corn-fed ethanol is cellulosic ethanol…Energy policy needs to be comprehensive. We are in a transition stage. There are reserves in ANWR…
5. Should we stop filling the strategic reserves?
“I don’t think stopping this policy will alter the price of gasoline. It only affects 1/10th of 1 percent.
6. What are you doing in the short term on gas prices?
“Opening ANWR is not short term. It is intermediate tem and it sends a message to the world. We will not stop exploration of oil in the U.S. We will build oil refineries. To say we will damage the environment is not accurate.”
Maybe we won't damage the environment, but we will sure ruin beach sun tanning.
Cartoon courtesy of Gamble of The Florida Times
RKK Analysis:
As I listened to this press conference the national media reporters did not appear to be doing their job. They returned to questions on Afghanistan, Syria, the Middle East, the Columbia free trade agreement, Jimmy Carter’s meeting with Hamas, and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). This gave the President an opportunity to rant on ideological ideas instead of forcing him to tackle U.S. energy policy issues. Bush spent too much time attacking the Democratically-controlled Congress and even spent time talking about democracy in Lebanon. There are bigger problems at home. The U.S. needs to get its house in order before America can project power around the rest of the world. In fact, rather than projecting power, the U.S. government needs to set an example as opposed to forcing change based on a conservative ideology.
At the federal level, U.S. political leaders need to listen to the political talking points of many of the state political leaders that present the following argument for renewable energy use over fossil fuel-based energy:
- Long-term stability owing to renewable energy’s indefinite availability and widespread distribution
- Price stability as energy extraction costs will drop over time
- Ability to create permanent jobs that don't get outsourced, many of them in the high-tech sector
- Provides an economic development opportunity when paired with the rise of datacenter facilities (e.g. Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc.)
- Immune to disruptions in supply due to political events or terrorist acts
Energy and the Quality of Life
Recently I was challenged as to my belief that energy and modest increases in energy consumption are needed to sustain and increase the quality of life. The question arose from my support for an environmental initiative to protect the boreal forests of Manitoba from another hydroelectric plant installation.The question:
“Rob, don't hydro power dams increase one's quality of living? You yourself acknowledge that technology often impacts on the environment . . . and you are the first to say that technology is inevitable in the advancement of the ‘human condition’."
The reply:
“Energy is needed to sustain civilization and increase the quality of life, i.e, advance the ‘human condition.’ However, hydroelectric power can be put in place without destroying the natural habitat. In this case, the boreal forests of Manitoba do not need to be further damaged. Instead of hydroelectric power, other renewable sources of energy can be installed across Manitoba as follows:
1. WIND POWER - consider the St. Leon Wind Power installation in southern Manitoba. Please see the January 2007 issue of AWP for a perspective on Wind Power.
Part of California's Altamont Pass wind farm.
2. SOLAR POWER - there are very few installations in Manitoba. The question you should be asking is “why?” Note that solar panels work BETTER in cold temperature climates, which Manitoba has for six months of the year. Please see the September 2007 issue of AWP for a perspective on Solar Energy.
Part of the solar array used by the City of Napa, California.
These two alternative sources of power, especially solar, provide their peak power output during the day, usually when hydroelectric plants are also at their peak. By reducing the peak power loads imposed on large, centralized hydroelectric plants, with the widespread deployment of solar power, fewer such large plants would be needed in the first place. This results in less habitat destruction and generation of cleaner energy without the attendant production of greenhouse gases.
3. HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS - At night, when hydroelectric power plants are not being used as much (in fact, some are likely shut down), they could, instead, continue to operate to provide electricity needed to drive the process of electrolysis. Here, water is separated into elemental oxygen and hydrogen to make hydrogen gas for fuel cells to propel future buses and automobiles. Use of fuel cell technology eliminates the need for gasoline to power cars (note: the Space Shuttle uses hydrogen fuel cells made by GE to provide electricity and drinkable water for the astronauts) and the resulting exhaust is drops of water. Furthermore, use of fuel cells promotes Canadian innovation in the form of Ballard Fuel Cells manufactured in B.C.
So there you have it. As an added benefit, the use of solar energy and wind power adopts a distributed model of power generation making the electrical transmission grid more robust. In fact, on a sunny or windy day, the power generated on your property will force your power meter to run backwards (grid-tie connections in a net metering scheme) and result in a credit appearing on your power bill. This configuration is very popular in California; the utility pays you for the power you feed the electric power grid. So far, the target in the U.S.’s most populous state is to get five percent of California power produced by such distributed power generating locations.
You never know. Manitoba may not need to build another new hydro plant nor import gasoline ever again, especially if these steps towards renewable energy generation are taken."
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